🔳Metrics
Metrics are the foundation of how users interpret prediction markets in PredicTools.
Rather than overwhelming users with technical indicators, PredicTools focuses on a small set of metrics that directly reflect market activity, participation, and consensus. These metrics are displayed consistently across all supported platforms to enable comparison and clarity.
PredicTools does not calculate or modify these values. All metrics are sourced directly from the underlying markets.
Interpreting Metrics in Context
Metrics in PredicTools are intended to be read in combination, not in isolation. Individual values often describe what is happening in a market, but relationships between metrics help explain how and why activity is changing.
For example, similar levels of volume can reflect very different conditions depending on how probabilities behave. High volume paired with relatively stable probabilities may indicate broad participation without strong directional conviction. The same volume combined with sharp probability movement can reflect more concentrated positioning or the rapid incorporation of new information.
PredicTools surfaces volume, probability, activity, and liquidity side by side to make these relationships visible. The goal is not to prescribe interpretation, but to give users a clearer view of how markets behave when multiple signals move together.
Volume
Volume represents the total amount of capital that has been traded in a market.
In prediction markets, volume is one of the clearest signals of engagement. Higher volume generally indicates that more participants are expressing opinions and acting on information.
In PredicTools, volume is used to help users:
identify markets with meaningful participation
avoid inactive or ignored questions
detect sudden increases in attention
Volume alone does not indicate correctness, but it does indicate relevance.
Recent Activity
Recent activity reflects how much trading has occurred over a short time window.
This metric is useful for spotting:
breaking information
sudden shifts in sentiment
markets transitioning from inactive to active
Markets with strong recent activity may deserve closer inspection, especially when combined with other metrics.
Probability (Yes / No)
Probabilities displayed in PredicTools represent the current market-implied likelihood of an outcome.
These values are determined by market participants and reflect collective positioning at that moment in time. PredicTools does not apply adjustments, smoothing, or interpretation.
Users should view probability as a snapshot of consensus, not a prediction generated by the tool.
Probability Movement
Changes in probability over time can provide important context.
Sharp movements may indicate:
new information entering the market
reassessment of existing assumptions
shifts in participant composition
PredicTools allows users to observe probability movement directly and in combination with volume and activity metrics.
Liquidity
Liquidity reflects how easily positions can be entered or exited without significantly affecting price.
Markets with higher liquidity tend to:
have tighter spreads
respond more smoothly to new information
be easier to trade efficiently
Low-liquidity markets may display extreme prices that do not reflect broad consensus.
PredicTools surfaces liquidity to help users assess practical usability, not opportunity quality.
Time to Resolution
Time to resolution indicates how long remains before a market resolves.
This metric is critical for understanding:
exposure duration
opportunity cost
sensitivity to new information
Markets with shorter time horizons may react more sharply to events, while longer-dated markets often move more gradually.
Market Status
Each market has a status indicator showing whether it is:
active
nearing resolution
resolved
PredicTools uses status to help users focus on markets that are actionable and avoid outdated information.
Reading Metrics Together
No single metric should be viewed in isolation.
PredicTools is designed to encourage users to evaluate metrics in combination. For example:
high volume with stable probability
low volume with extreme pricing
rapid probability movement with rising activity
This contextual approach supports clearer thinking and reduces overreliance on any single signal.
Design Principles Behind Metrics
Metrics in PredicTools follow three core principles:
transparency
consistency
minimalism
Only metrics that meaningfully contribute to decision-making are displayed. The goal is clarity, not complexity.
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